tra-analysis/data analysis/analysis/trueskill/__init__.py

727 lines
27 KiB
Python

# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
"""
trueskill
~~~~~~~~~
The video game rating system.
:copyright: (c) 2012-2016 by Heungsub Lee
:license: BSD, see LICENSE for more details.
"""
from __future__ import absolute_import
from itertools import chain
import math
from six import iteritems
from six.moves import map, range, zip
from .__about__ import __version__ # noqa
from .backends import choose_backend
from .factorgraph import (LikelihoodFactor, PriorFactor, SumFactor,
TruncateFactor, Variable)
from .mathematics import Gaussian, Matrix
__all__ = [
# TrueSkill objects
'TrueSkill', 'Rating',
# functions for the global environment
'rate', 'quality', 'rate_1vs1', 'quality_1vs1', 'expose', 'setup',
'global_env',
# default values
'MU', 'SIGMA', 'BETA', 'TAU', 'DRAW_PROBABILITY',
# draw probability helpers
'calc_draw_probability', 'calc_draw_margin',
# deprecated features
'transform_ratings', 'match_quality', 'dynamic_draw_probability',
]
#: Default initial mean of ratings.
MU = 25.
#: Default initial standard deviation of ratings.
SIGMA = MU / 3
#: Default distance that guarantees about 76% chance of winning.
BETA = SIGMA / 2
#: Default dynamic factor.
TAU = SIGMA / 100
#: Default draw probability of the game.
DRAW_PROBABILITY = .10
#: A basis to check reliability of the result.
DELTA = 0.0001
def calc_draw_probability(draw_margin, size, env=None):
"""Calculates a draw-probability from the given ``draw_margin``.
:param draw_margin: the draw-margin.
:param size: the number of players in two comparing teams.
:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
environment.
"""
if env is None:
env = global_env()
return 2 * env.cdf(draw_margin / (math.sqrt(size) * env.beta)) - 1
def calc_draw_margin(draw_probability, size, env=None):
"""Calculates a draw-margin from the given ``draw_probability``.
:param draw_probability: the draw-probability.
:param size: the number of players in two comparing teams.
:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
environment.
"""
if env is None:
env = global_env()
return env.ppf((draw_probability + 1) / 2.) * math.sqrt(size) * env.beta
def _team_sizes(rating_groups):
"""Makes a size map of each teams."""
team_sizes = [0]
for group in rating_groups:
team_sizes.append(len(group) + team_sizes[-1])
del team_sizes[0]
return team_sizes
def _floating_point_error(env):
if env.backend == 'mpmath':
msg = 'Set "mpmath.mp.dps" to higher'
else:
msg = 'Cannot calculate correctly, set backend to "mpmath"'
return FloatingPointError(msg)
class Rating(Gaussian):
"""Represents a player's skill as Gaussian distrubution.
The default mu and sigma value follows the global environment's settings.
If you don't want to use the global, use :meth:`TrueSkill.create_rating` to
create the rating object.
:param mu: the mean.
:param sigma: the standard deviation.
"""
def __init__(self, mu=None, sigma=None):
if isinstance(mu, tuple):
mu, sigma = mu
elif isinstance(mu, Gaussian):
mu, sigma = mu.mu, mu.sigma
if mu is None:
mu = global_env().mu
if sigma is None:
sigma = global_env().sigma
super(Rating, self).__init__(mu, sigma)
def __int__(self):
return int(self.mu)
def __long__(self):
return long(self.mu)
def __float__(self):
return float(self.mu)
def __iter__(self):
return iter((self.mu, self.sigma))
def __repr__(self):
c = type(self)
args = ('.'.join([c.__module__, c.__name__]), self.mu, self.sigma)
return '%s(mu=%.3f, sigma=%.3f)' % args
class TrueSkill(object):
"""Implements a TrueSkill environment. An environment could have
customized constants. Every games have not same design and may need to
customize TrueSkill constants.
For example, 60% of matches in your game have finished as draw then you
should set ``draw_probability`` to 0.60::
env = TrueSkill(draw_probability=0.60)
For more details of the constants, see `The Math Behind TrueSkill`_ by
Jeff Moser.
.. _The Math Behind TrueSkill:: http://bit.ly/trueskill-math
:param mu: the initial mean of ratings.
:param sigma: the initial standard deviation of ratings. The recommended
value is a third of ``mu``.
:param beta: the distance which guarantees about 76% chance of winning.
The recommended value is a half of ``sigma``.
:param tau: the dynamic factor which restrains a fixation of rating. The
recommended value is ``sigma`` per cent.
:param draw_probability: the draw probability between two teams. It can be
a ``float`` or function which returns a ``float``
by the given two rating (team performance)
arguments and the beta value. If it is a
``float``, the game has fixed draw probability.
Otherwise, the draw probability will be decided
dynamically per each match.
:param backend: the name of a backend which implements cdf, pdf, ppf. See
:mod:`trueskill.backends` for more details. Defaults to
``None``.
"""
def __init__(self, mu=MU, sigma=SIGMA, beta=BETA, tau=TAU,
draw_probability=DRAW_PROBABILITY, backend=None):
self.mu = mu
self.sigma = sigma
self.beta = beta
self.tau = tau
self.draw_probability = draw_probability
self.backend = backend
if isinstance(backend, tuple):
self.cdf, self.pdf, self.ppf = backend
else:
self.cdf, self.pdf, self.ppf = choose_backend(backend)
def create_rating(self, mu=None, sigma=None):
"""Initializes new :class:`Rating` object, but it fixes default mu and
sigma to the environment's.
>>> env = TrueSkill(mu=0, sigma=1)
>>> env.create_rating()
trueskill.Rating(mu=0.000, sigma=1.000)
"""
if mu is None:
mu = self.mu
if sigma is None:
sigma = self.sigma
return Rating(mu, sigma)
def v_win(self, diff, draw_margin):
"""The non-draw version of "V" function. "V" calculates a variation of
a mean.
"""
x = diff - draw_margin
denom = self.cdf(x)
return (self.pdf(x) / denom) if denom else -x
def v_draw(self, diff, draw_margin):
"""The draw version of "V" function."""
abs_diff = abs(diff)
a, b = draw_margin - abs_diff, -draw_margin - abs_diff
denom = self.cdf(a) - self.cdf(b)
numer = self.pdf(b) - self.pdf(a)
return ((numer / denom) if denom else a) * (-1 if diff < 0 else +1)
def w_win(self, diff, draw_margin):
"""The non-draw version of "W" function. "W" calculates a variation of
a standard deviation.
"""
x = diff - draw_margin
v = self.v_win(diff, draw_margin)
w = v * (v + x)
if 0 < w < 1:
return w
raise _floating_point_error(self)
def w_draw(self, diff, draw_margin):
"""The draw version of "W" function."""
abs_diff = abs(diff)
a, b = draw_margin - abs_diff, -draw_margin - abs_diff
denom = self.cdf(a) - self.cdf(b)
if not denom:
raise _floating_point_error(self)
v = self.v_draw(abs_diff, draw_margin)
return (v ** 2) + (a * self.pdf(a) - b * self.pdf(b)) / denom
def validate_rating_groups(self, rating_groups):
"""Validates a ``rating_groups`` argument. It should contain more than
2 groups and all groups must not be empty.
>>> env = TrueSkill()
>>> env.validate_rating_groups([])
Traceback (most recent call last):
...
ValueError: need multiple rating groups
>>> env.validate_rating_groups([(Rating(),)])
Traceback (most recent call last):
...
ValueError: need multiple rating groups
>>> env.validate_rating_groups([(Rating(),), ()])
Traceback (most recent call last):
...
ValueError: each group must contain multiple ratings
>>> env.validate_rating_groups([(Rating(),), (Rating(),)])
... #doctest: +ELLIPSIS
[(truekill.Rating(...),), (trueskill.Rating(...),)]
"""
# check group sizes
if len(rating_groups) < 2:
raise ValueError('Need multiple rating groups')
elif not all(rating_groups):
raise ValueError('Each group must contain multiple ratings')
# check group types
group_types = set(map(type, rating_groups))
if len(group_types) != 1:
raise TypeError('All groups should be same type')
elif group_types.pop() is Rating:
raise TypeError('Rating cannot be a rating group')
# normalize rating_groups
if isinstance(rating_groups[0], dict):
dict_rating_groups = rating_groups
rating_groups = []
keys = []
for dict_rating_group in dict_rating_groups:
rating_group, key_group = [], []
for key, rating in iteritems(dict_rating_group):
rating_group.append(rating)
key_group.append(key)
rating_groups.append(tuple(rating_group))
keys.append(tuple(key_group))
else:
rating_groups = list(rating_groups)
keys = None
return rating_groups, keys
def validate_weights(self, weights, rating_groups, keys=None):
if weights is None:
weights = [(1,) * len(g) for g in rating_groups]
elif isinstance(weights, dict):
weights_dict, weights = weights, []
for x, group in enumerate(rating_groups):
w = []
weights.append(w)
for y, rating in enumerate(group):
if keys is not None:
y = keys[x][y]
w.append(weights_dict.get((x, y), 1))
return weights
def factor_graph_builders(self, rating_groups, ranks, weights):
"""Makes nodes for the TrueSkill factor graph.
Here's an example of a TrueSkill factor graph when 1 vs 2 vs 1 match::
rating_layer: O O O O (PriorFactor)
| | | |
| | | |
perf_layer: O O O O (LikelihoodFactor)
| \ / |
| | |
team_perf_layer: O O O (SumFactor)
\ / \ /
| |
team_diff_layer: O O (SumFactor)
| |
| |
trunc_layer: O O (TruncateFactor)
"""
flatten_ratings = sum(map(tuple, rating_groups), ())
flatten_weights = sum(map(tuple, weights), ())
size = len(flatten_ratings)
group_size = len(rating_groups)
# create variables
rating_vars = [Variable() for x in range(size)]
perf_vars = [Variable() for x in range(size)]
team_perf_vars = [Variable() for x in range(group_size)]
team_diff_vars = [Variable() for x in range(group_size - 1)]
team_sizes = _team_sizes(rating_groups)
# layer builders
def build_rating_layer():
for rating_var, rating in zip(rating_vars, flatten_ratings):
yield PriorFactor(rating_var, rating, self.tau)
def build_perf_layer():
for rating_var, perf_var in zip(rating_vars, perf_vars):
yield LikelihoodFactor(rating_var, perf_var, self.beta ** 2)
def build_team_perf_layer():
for team, team_perf_var in enumerate(team_perf_vars):
if team > 0:
start = team_sizes[team - 1]
else:
start = 0
end = team_sizes[team]
child_perf_vars = perf_vars[start:end]
coeffs = flatten_weights[start:end]
yield SumFactor(team_perf_var, child_perf_vars, coeffs)
def build_team_diff_layer():
for team, team_diff_var in enumerate(team_diff_vars):
yield SumFactor(team_diff_var,
team_perf_vars[team:team + 2], [+1, -1])
def build_trunc_layer():
for x, team_diff_var in enumerate(team_diff_vars):
if callable(self.draw_probability):
# dynamic draw probability
team_perf1, team_perf2 = team_perf_vars[x:x + 2]
args = (Rating(team_perf1), Rating(team_perf2), self)
draw_probability = self.draw_probability(*args)
else:
# static draw probability
draw_probability = self.draw_probability
size = sum(map(len, rating_groups[x:x + 2]))
draw_margin = calc_draw_margin(draw_probability, size, self)
if ranks[x] == ranks[x + 1]: # is a tie?
v_func, w_func = self.v_draw, self.w_draw
else:
v_func, w_func = self.v_win, self.w_win
yield TruncateFactor(team_diff_var,
v_func, w_func, draw_margin)
# build layers
return (build_rating_layer, build_perf_layer, build_team_perf_layer,
build_team_diff_layer, build_trunc_layer)
def run_schedule(self, build_rating_layer, build_perf_layer,
build_team_perf_layer, build_team_diff_layer,
build_trunc_layer, min_delta=DELTA):
"""Sends messages within every nodes of the factor graph until the
result is reliable.
"""
if min_delta <= 0:
raise ValueError('min_delta must be greater than 0')
layers = []
def build(builders):
layers_built = [list(build()) for build in builders]
layers.extend(layers_built)
return layers_built
# gray arrows
layers_built = build([build_rating_layer,
build_perf_layer,
build_team_perf_layer])
rating_layer, perf_layer, team_perf_layer = layers_built
for f in chain(*layers_built):
f.down()
# arrow #1, #2, #3
team_diff_layer, trunc_layer = build([build_team_diff_layer,
build_trunc_layer])
team_diff_len = len(team_diff_layer)
for x in range(10):
if team_diff_len == 1:
# only two teams
team_diff_layer[0].down()
delta = trunc_layer[0].up()
else:
# multiple teams
delta = 0
for x in range(team_diff_len - 1):
team_diff_layer[x].down()
delta = max(delta, trunc_layer[x].up())
team_diff_layer[x].up(1) # up to right variable
for x in range(team_diff_len - 1, 0, -1):
team_diff_layer[x].down()
delta = max(delta, trunc_layer[x].up())
team_diff_layer[x].up(0) # up to left variable
# repeat until to small update
if delta <= min_delta:
break
# up both ends
team_diff_layer[0].up(0)
team_diff_layer[team_diff_len - 1].up(1)
# up the remainder of the black arrows
for f in team_perf_layer:
for x in range(len(f.vars) - 1):
f.up(x)
for f in perf_layer:
f.up()
return layers
def rate(self, rating_groups, ranks=None, weights=None, min_delta=DELTA):
"""Recalculates ratings by the ranking table::
env = TrueSkill() # uses default settings
# create ratings
r1 = env.create_rating(42.222)
r2 = env.create_rating(89.999)
# calculate new ratings
rating_groups = [(r1,), (r2,)]
rated_rating_groups = env.rate(rating_groups, ranks=[0, 1])
# save new ratings
(r1,), (r2,) = rated_rating_groups
``rating_groups`` is a list of rating tuples or dictionaries that
represents each team of the match. You will get a result as same
structure as this argument. Rating dictionaries for this may be useful
to choose specific player's new rating::
# load players from the database
p1 = load_player_from_database('Arpad Emrick Elo')
p2 = load_player_from_database('Mark Glickman')
p3 = load_player_from_database('Heungsub Lee')
# calculate new ratings
rating_groups = [{p1: p1.rating, p2: p2.rating}, {p3: p3.rating}]
rated_rating_groups = env.rate(rating_groups, ranks=[0, 1])
# save new ratings
for player in [p1, p2, p3]:
player.rating = rated_rating_groups[player.team][player]
:param rating_groups: a list of tuples or dictionaries containing
:class:`Rating` objects.
:param ranks: a ranking table. By default, it is same as the order of
the ``rating_groups``.
:param weights: weights of each players for "partial play".
:param min_delta: each loop checks a delta of changes and the loop
will stop if the delta is less then this argument.
:returns: recalculated ratings same structure as ``rating_groups``.
:raises: :exc:`FloatingPointError` occurs when winners have too lower
rating than losers. higher floating-point precision couls
solve this error. set the backend to "mpmath".
.. versionadded:: 0.2
"""
rating_groups, keys = self.validate_rating_groups(rating_groups)
weights = self.validate_weights(weights, rating_groups, keys)
group_size = len(rating_groups)
if ranks is None:
ranks = range(group_size)
elif len(ranks) != group_size:
raise ValueError('Wrong ranks')
# sort rating groups by rank
by_rank = lambda x: x[1][1]
sorting = sorted(enumerate(zip(rating_groups, ranks, weights)),
key=by_rank)
sorted_rating_groups, sorted_ranks, sorted_weights = [], [], []
for x, (g, r, w) in sorting:
sorted_rating_groups.append(g)
sorted_ranks.append(r)
# make weights to be greater than 0
sorted_weights.append(max(min_delta, w_) for w_ in w)
# build factor graph
args = (sorted_rating_groups, sorted_ranks, sorted_weights)
builders = self.factor_graph_builders(*args)
args = builders + (min_delta,)
layers = self.run_schedule(*args)
# make result
rating_layer, team_sizes = layers[0], _team_sizes(sorted_rating_groups)
transformed_groups = []
for start, end in zip([0] + team_sizes[:-1], team_sizes):
group = []
for f in rating_layer[start:end]:
group.append(Rating(float(f.var.mu), float(f.var.sigma)))
transformed_groups.append(tuple(group))
by_hint = lambda x: x[0]
unsorting = sorted(zip((x for x, __ in sorting), transformed_groups),
key=by_hint)
if keys is None:
return [g for x, g in unsorting]
# restore the structure with input dictionary keys
return [dict(zip(keys[x], g)) for x, g in unsorting]
def quality(self, rating_groups, weights=None):
"""Calculates the match quality of the given rating groups. A result
is the draw probability in the association::
env = TrueSkill()
if env.quality([team1, team2, team3]) < 0.50:
print('This match seems to be not so fair')
:param rating_groups: a list of tuples or dictionaries containing
:class:`Rating` objects.
:param weights: weights of each players for "partial play".
.. versionadded:: 0.2
"""
rating_groups, keys = self.validate_rating_groups(rating_groups)
weights = self.validate_weights(weights, rating_groups, keys)
flatten_ratings = sum(map(tuple, rating_groups), ())
flatten_weights = sum(map(tuple, weights), ())
length = len(flatten_ratings)
# a vector of all of the skill means
mean_matrix = Matrix([[r.mu] for r in flatten_ratings])
# a matrix whose diagonal values are the variances (sigma ** 2) of each
# of the players.
def variance_matrix(height, width):
variances = (r.sigma ** 2 for r in flatten_ratings)
for x, variance in enumerate(variances):
yield (x, x), variance
variance_matrix = Matrix(variance_matrix, length, length)
# the player-team assignment and comparison matrix
def rotated_a_matrix(set_height, set_width):
t = 0
for r, (cur, _next) in enumerate(zip(rating_groups[:-1],
rating_groups[1:])):
for x in range(t, t + len(cur)):
yield (r, x), flatten_weights[x]
t += 1
x += 1
for x in range(x, x + len(_next)):
yield (r, x), -flatten_weights[x]
set_height(r + 1)
set_width(x + 1)
rotated_a_matrix = Matrix(rotated_a_matrix)
a_matrix = rotated_a_matrix.transpose()
# match quality further derivation
_ata = (self.beta ** 2) * rotated_a_matrix * a_matrix
_atsa = rotated_a_matrix * variance_matrix * a_matrix
start = mean_matrix.transpose() * a_matrix
middle = _ata + _atsa
end = rotated_a_matrix * mean_matrix
# make result
e_arg = (-0.5 * start * middle.inverse() * end).determinant()
s_arg = _ata.determinant() / middle.determinant()
return math.exp(e_arg) * math.sqrt(s_arg)
def expose(self, rating):
"""Returns the value of the rating exposure. It starts from 0 and
converges to the mean. Use this as a sort key in a leaderboard::
leaderboard = sorted(ratings, key=env.expose, reverse=True)
.. versionadded:: 0.4
"""
k = self.mu / self.sigma
return rating.mu - k * rating.sigma
def make_as_global(self):
"""Registers the environment as the global environment.
>>> env = TrueSkill(mu=50)
>>> Rating()
trueskill.Rating(mu=25.000, sigma=8.333)
>>> env.make_as_global() #doctest: +ELLIPSIS
trueskill.TrueSkill(mu=50.000, ...)
>>> Rating()
trueskill.Rating(mu=50.000, sigma=8.333)
But if you need just one environment, :func:`setup` is better to use.
"""
return setup(env=self)
def __repr__(self):
c = type(self)
if callable(self.draw_probability):
f = self.draw_probability
draw_probability = '.'.join([f.__module__, f.__name__])
else:
draw_probability = '%.1f%%' % (self.draw_probability * 100)
if self.backend is None:
backend = ''
elif isinstance(self.backend, tuple):
backend = ', backend=...'
else:
backend = ', backend=%r' % self.backend
args = ('.'.join([c.__module__, c.__name__]), self.mu, self.sigma,
self.beta, self.tau, draw_probability, backend)
return ('%s(mu=%.3f, sigma=%.3f, beta=%.3f, tau=%.3f, '
'draw_probability=%s%s)' % args)
def rate_1vs1(rating1, rating2, drawn=False, min_delta=DELTA, env=None):
"""A shortcut to rate just 2 players in a head-to-head match::
alice, bob = Rating(25), Rating(30)
alice, bob = rate_1vs1(alice, bob)
alice, bob = rate_1vs1(alice, bob, drawn=True)
:param rating1: the winner's rating if they didn't draw.
:param rating2: the loser's rating if they didn't draw.
:param drawn: if the players drew, set this to ``True``. Defaults to
``False``.
:param min_delta: will be passed to :meth:`rate`.
:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
environment.
:returns: a tuple containing recalculated 2 ratings.
.. versionadded:: 0.2
"""
if env is None:
env = global_env()
ranks = [0, 0 if drawn else 1]
teams = env.rate([(rating1,), (rating2,)], ranks, min_delta=min_delta)
return teams[0][0], teams[1][0]
def quality_1vs1(rating1, rating2, env=None):
"""A shortcut to calculate the match quality between just 2 players in
a head-to-head match::
if quality_1vs1(alice, bob) < 0.50:
print('This match seems to be not so fair')
:param rating1: the rating.
:param rating2: the another rating.
:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
environment.
.. versionadded:: 0.2
"""
if env is None:
env = global_env()
return env.quality([(rating1,), (rating2,)])
def global_env():
"""Gets the :class:`TrueSkill` object which is the global environment."""
try:
global_env.__trueskill__
except AttributeError:
# setup the default environment
setup()
return global_env.__trueskill__
def setup(mu=MU, sigma=SIGMA, beta=BETA, tau=TAU,
draw_probability=DRAW_PROBABILITY, backend=None, env=None):
"""Setups the global environment.
:param env: the specific :class:`TrueSkill` object to be the global
environment. It is optional.
>>> Rating()
trueskill.Rating(mu=25.000, sigma=8.333)
>>> setup(mu=50) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS
trueskill.TrueSkill(mu=50.000, ...)
>>> Rating()
trueskill.Rating(mu=50.000, sigma=8.333)
"""
if env is None:
env = TrueSkill(mu, sigma, beta, tau, draw_probability, backend)
global_env.__trueskill__ = env
return env
def rate(rating_groups, ranks=None, weights=None, min_delta=DELTA):
"""A proxy function for :meth:`TrueSkill.rate` of the global environment.
.. versionadded:: 0.2
"""
return global_env().rate(rating_groups, ranks, weights, min_delta)
def quality(rating_groups, weights=None):
"""A proxy function for :meth:`TrueSkill.quality` of the global
environment.
.. versionadded:: 0.2
"""
return global_env().quality(rating_groups, weights)
def expose(rating):
"""A proxy function for :meth:`TrueSkill.expose` of the global environment.
.. versionadded:: 0.4
"""
return global_env().expose(rating)
# Append deprecated methods into :class:`TrueSkill` and :class:`Rating`
from . import deprecated # noqa
from .deprecated import ( # noqa
dynamic_draw_probability, match_quality, transform_ratings)
deprecated.ensure_backward_compatibility(TrueSkill, Rating)