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upload trueskill for testing purposes
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data analysis/analysis/trueskill/__about__.py
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data analysis/analysis/trueskill/__about__.py
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
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"""
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trueskill.__about__
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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"""
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__version__ = '0.4.5'
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__license__ = 'BSD'
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__author__ = 'Heungsub Lee'
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__author_email__ = 'sub@subl.ee'
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__url__ = 'http://trueskill.org/'
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__description__ = 'The video game rating system'
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data analysis/analysis/trueskill/__init__.py
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data analysis/analysis/trueskill/__init__.py
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
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"""
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trueskill
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~~~~~~~~~
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The video game rating system.
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:copyright: (c) 2012-2016 by Heungsub Lee
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:license: BSD, see LICENSE for more details.
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"""
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from __future__ import absolute_import
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from itertools import chain
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import math
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from six import iteritems
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from six.moves import map, range, zip
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from .__about__ import __version__ # noqa
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from .backends import choose_backend
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from .factorgraph import (LikelihoodFactor, PriorFactor, SumFactor,
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TruncateFactor, Variable)
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from .mathematics import Gaussian, Matrix
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__all__ = [
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# TrueSkill objects
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'TrueSkill', 'Rating',
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# functions for the global environment
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'rate', 'quality', 'rate_1vs1', 'quality_1vs1', 'expose', 'setup',
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'global_env',
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# default values
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'MU', 'SIGMA', 'BETA', 'TAU', 'DRAW_PROBABILITY',
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# draw probability helpers
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'calc_draw_probability', 'calc_draw_margin',
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# deprecated features
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'transform_ratings', 'match_quality', 'dynamic_draw_probability',
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]
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#: Default initial mean of ratings.
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MU = 25.
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#: Default initial standard deviation of ratings.
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SIGMA = MU / 3
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#: Default distance that guarantees about 76% chance of winning.
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BETA = SIGMA / 2
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#: Default dynamic factor.
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TAU = SIGMA / 100
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#: Default draw probability of the game.
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DRAW_PROBABILITY = .10
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#: A basis to check reliability of the result.
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DELTA = 0.0001
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def calc_draw_probability(draw_margin, size, env=None):
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"""Calculates a draw-probability from the given ``draw_margin``.
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:param draw_margin: the draw-margin.
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:param size: the number of players in two comparing teams.
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:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
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environment.
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"""
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if env is None:
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env = global_env()
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return 2 * env.cdf(draw_margin / (math.sqrt(size) * env.beta)) - 1
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def calc_draw_margin(draw_probability, size, env=None):
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"""Calculates a draw-margin from the given ``draw_probability``.
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:param draw_probability: the draw-probability.
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:param size: the number of players in two comparing teams.
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:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
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environment.
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"""
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if env is None:
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env = global_env()
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return env.ppf((draw_probability + 1) / 2.) * math.sqrt(size) * env.beta
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def _team_sizes(rating_groups):
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"""Makes a size map of each teams."""
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team_sizes = [0]
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for group in rating_groups:
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team_sizes.append(len(group) + team_sizes[-1])
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del team_sizes[0]
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return team_sizes
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def _floating_point_error(env):
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if env.backend == 'mpmath':
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msg = 'Set "mpmath.mp.dps" to higher'
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else:
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msg = 'Cannot calculate correctly, set backend to "mpmath"'
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return FloatingPointError(msg)
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class Rating(Gaussian):
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"""Represents a player's skill as Gaussian distrubution.
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The default mu and sigma value follows the global environment's settings.
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If you don't want to use the global, use :meth:`TrueSkill.create_rating` to
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create the rating object.
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:param mu: the mean.
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:param sigma: the standard deviation.
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"""
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def __init__(self, mu=None, sigma=None):
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if isinstance(mu, tuple):
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mu, sigma = mu
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elif isinstance(mu, Gaussian):
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mu, sigma = mu.mu, mu.sigma
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if mu is None:
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mu = global_env().mu
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if sigma is None:
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sigma = global_env().sigma
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super(Rating, self).__init__(mu, sigma)
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def __int__(self):
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return int(self.mu)
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def __long__(self):
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return long(self.mu)
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def __float__(self):
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return float(self.mu)
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def __iter__(self):
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return iter((self.mu, self.sigma))
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def __repr__(self):
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c = type(self)
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args = ('.'.join([c.__module__, c.__name__]), self.mu, self.sigma)
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return '%s(mu=%.3f, sigma=%.3f)' % args
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class TrueSkill(object):
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"""Implements a TrueSkill environment. An environment could have
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customized constants. Every games have not same design and may need to
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customize TrueSkill constants.
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For example, 60% of matches in your game have finished as draw then you
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should set ``draw_probability`` to 0.60::
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env = TrueSkill(draw_probability=0.60)
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For more details of the constants, see `The Math Behind TrueSkill`_ by
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Jeff Moser.
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.. _The Math Behind TrueSkill:: http://bit.ly/trueskill-math
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:param mu: the initial mean of ratings.
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:param sigma: the initial standard deviation of ratings. The recommended
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value is a third of ``mu``.
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:param beta: the distance which guarantees about 76% chance of winning.
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The recommended value is a half of ``sigma``.
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:param tau: the dynamic factor which restrains a fixation of rating. The
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recommended value is ``sigma`` per cent.
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:param draw_probability: the draw probability between two teams. It can be
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a ``float`` or function which returns a ``float``
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by the given two rating (team performance)
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arguments and the beta value. If it is a
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``float``, the game has fixed draw probability.
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Otherwise, the draw probability will be decided
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dynamically per each match.
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:param backend: the name of a backend which implements cdf, pdf, ppf. See
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:mod:`trueskill.backends` for more details. Defaults to
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``None``.
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"""
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def __init__(self, mu=MU, sigma=SIGMA, beta=BETA, tau=TAU,
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draw_probability=DRAW_PROBABILITY, backend=None):
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self.mu = mu
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self.sigma = sigma
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self.beta = beta
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self.tau = tau
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self.draw_probability = draw_probability
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self.backend = backend
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if isinstance(backend, tuple):
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self.cdf, self.pdf, self.ppf = backend
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else:
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self.cdf, self.pdf, self.ppf = choose_backend(backend)
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def create_rating(self, mu=None, sigma=None):
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"""Initializes new :class:`Rating` object, but it fixes default mu and
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sigma to the environment's.
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>>> env = TrueSkill(mu=0, sigma=1)
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>>> env.create_rating()
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trueskill.Rating(mu=0.000, sigma=1.000)
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"""
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if mu is None:
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mu = self.mu
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if sigma is None:
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sigma = self.sigma
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return Rating(mu, sigma)
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def v_win(self, diff, draw_margin):
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"""The non-draw version of "V" function. "V" calculates a variation of
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a mean.
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"""
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x = diff - draw_margin
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denom = self.cdf(x)
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return (self.pdf(x) / denom) if denom else -x
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def v_draw(self, diff, draw_margin):
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"""The draw version of "V" function."""
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abs_diff = abs(diff)
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a, b = draw_margin - abs_diff, -draw_margin - abs_diff
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denom = self.cdf(a) - self.cdf(b)
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numer = self.pdf(b) - self.pdf(a)
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return ((numer / denom) if denom else a) * (-1 if diff < 0 else +1)
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def w_win(self, diff, draw_margin):
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"""The non-draw version of "W" function. "W" calculates a variation of
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a standard deviation.
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"""
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x = diff - draw_margin
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v = self.v_win(diff, draw_margin)
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w = v * (v + x)
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if 0 < w < 1:
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return w
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raise _floating_point_error(self)
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def w_draw(self, diff, draw_margin):
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"""The draw version of "W" function."""
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abs_diff = abs(diff)
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a, b = draw_margin - abs_diff, -draw_margin - abs_diff
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denom = self.cdf(a) - self.cdf(b)
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if not denom:
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raise _floating_point_error(self)
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v = self.v_draw(abs_diff, draw_margin)
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return (v ** 2) + (a * self.pdf(a) - b * self.pdf(b)) / denom
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def validate_rating_groups(self, rating_groups):
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"""Validates a ``rating_groups`` argument. It should contain more than
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2 groups and all groups must not be empty.
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>>> env = TrueSkill()
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>>> env.validate_rating_groups([])
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Traceback (most recent call last):
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...
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ValueError: need multiple rating groups
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>>> env.validate_rating_groups([(Rating(),)])
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Traceback (most recent call last):
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...
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ValueError: need multiple rating groups
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>>> env.validate_rating_groups([(Rating(),), ()])
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Traceback (most recent call last):
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...
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ValueError: each group must contain multiple ratings
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>>> env.validate_rating_groups([(Rating(),), (Rating(),)])
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... #doctest: +ELLIPSIS
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[(truekill.Rating(...),), (trueskill.Rating(...),)]
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"""
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# check group sizes
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if len(rating_groups) < 2:
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raise ValueError('Need multiple rating groups')
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elif not all(rating_groups):
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raise ValueError('Each group must contain multiple ratings')
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# check group types
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group_types = set(map(type, rating_groups))
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if len(group_types) != 1:
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raise TypeError('All groups should be same type')
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elif group_types.pop() is Rating:
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raise TypeError('Rating cannot be a rating group')
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# normalize rating_groups
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if isinstance(rating_groups[0], dict):
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dict_rating_groups = rating_groups
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rating_groups = []
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keys = []
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for dict_rating_group in dict_rating_groups:
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rating_group, key_group = [], []
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for key, rating in iteritems(dict_rating_group):
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rating_group.append(rating)
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key_group.append(key)
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rating_groups.append(tuple(rating_group))
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keys.append(tuple(key_group))
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else:
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rating_groups = list(rating_groups)
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keys = None
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return rating_groups, keys
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def validate_weights(self, weights, rating_groups, keys=None):
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if weights is None:
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weights = [(1,) * len(g) for g in rating_groups]
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elif isinstance(weights, dict):
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weights_dict, weights = weights, []
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for x, group in enumerate(rating_groups):
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w = []
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weights.append(w)
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for y, rating in enumerate(group):
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if keys is not None:
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y = keys[x][y]
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w.append(weights_dict.get((x, y), 1))
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return weights
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def factor_graph_builders(self, rating_groups, ranks, weights):
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"""Makes nodes for the TrueSkill factor graph.
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Here's an example of a TrueSkill factor graph when 1 vs 2 vs 1 match::
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rating_layer: O O O O (PriorFactor)
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| | | |
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perf_layer: O O O O (LikelihoodFactor)
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| \ / |
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team_perf_layer: O O O (SumFactor)
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\ / \ /
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team_diff_layer: O O (SumFactor)
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trunc_layer: O O (TruncateFactor)
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"""
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flatten_ratings = sum(map(tuple, rating_groups), ())
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flatten_weights = sum(map(tuple, weights), ())
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size = len(flatten_ratings)
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group_size = len(rating_groups)
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# create variables
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rating_vars = [Variable() for x in range(size)]
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perf_vars = [Variable() for x in range(size)]
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team_perf_vars = [Variable() for x in range(group_size)]
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team_diff_vars = [Variable() for x in range(group_size - 1)]
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team_sizes = _team_sizes(rating_groups)
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# layer builders
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def build_rating_layer():
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for rating_var, rating in zip(rating_vars, flatten_ratings):
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yield PriorFactor(rating_var, rating, self.tau)
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def build_perf_layer():
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for rating_var, perf_var in zip(rating_vars, perf_vars):
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yield LikelihoodFactor(rating_var, perf_var, self.beta ** 2)
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def build_team_perf_layer():
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for team, team_perf_var in enumerate(team_perf_vars):
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if team > 0:
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start = team_sizes[team - 1]
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else:
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start = 0
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end = team_sizes[team]
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child_perf_vars = perf_vars[start:end]
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coeffs = flatten_weights[start:end]
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yield SumFactor(team_perf_var, child_perf_vars, coeffs)
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def build_team_diff_layer():
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for team, team_diff_var in enumerate(team_diff_vars):
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yield SumFactor(team_diff_var,
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team_perf_vars[team:team + 2], [+1, -1])
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def build_trunc_layer():
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for x, team_diff_var in enumerate(team_diff_vars):
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if callable(self.draw_probability):
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# dynamic draw probability
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team_perf1, team_perf2 = team_perf_vars[x:x + 2]
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args = (Rating(team_perf1), Rating(team_perf2), self)
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draw_probability = self.draw_probability(*args)
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else:
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# static draw probability
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draw_probability = self.draw_probability
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||||||
|
size = sum(map(len, rating_groups[x:x + 2]))
|
||||||
|
draw_margin = calc_draw_margin(draw_probability, size, self)
|
||||||
|
if ranks[x] == ranks[x + 1]: # is a tie?
|
||||||
|
v_func, w_func = self.v_draw, self.w_draw
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
v_func, w_func = self.v_win, self.w_win
|
||||||
|
yield TruncateFactor(team_diff_var,
|
||||||
|
v_func, w_func, draw_margin)
|
||||||
|
# build layers
|
||||||
|
return (build_rating_layer, build_perf_layer, build_team_perf_layer,
|
||||||
|
build_team_diff_layer, build_trunc_layer)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def run_schedule(self, build_rating_layer, build_perf_layer,
|
||||||
|
build_team_perf_layer, build_team_diff_layer,
|
||||||
|
build_trunc_layer, min_delta=DELTA):
|
||||||
|
"""Sends messages within every nodes of the factor graph until the
|
||||||
|
result is reliable.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if min_delta <= 0:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('min_delta must be greater than 0')
|
||||||
|
layers = []
|
||||||
|
def build(builders):
|
||||||
|
layers_built = [list(build()) for build in builders]
|
||||||
|
layers.extend(layers_built)
|
||||||
|
return layers_built
|
||||||
|
# gray arrows
|
||||||
|
layers_built = build([build_rating_layer,
|
||||||
|
build_perf_layer,
|
||||||
|
build_team_perf_layer])
|
||||||
|
rating_layer, perf_layer, team_perf_layer = layers_built
|
||||||
|
for f in chain(*layers_built):
|
||||||
|
f.down()
|
||||||
|
# arrow #1, #2, #3
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer, trunc_layer = build([build_team_diff_layer,
|
||||||
|
build_trunc_layer])
|
||||||
|
team_diff_len = len(team_diff_layer)
|
||||||
|
for x in range(10):
|
||||||
|
if team_diff_len == 1:
|
||||||
|
# only two teams
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[0].down()
|
||||||
|
delta = trunc_layer[0].up()
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
# multiple teams
|
||||||
|
delta = 0
|
||||||
|
for x in range(team_diff_len - 1):
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[x].down()
|
||||||
|
delta = max(delta, trunc_layer[x].up())
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[x].up(1) # up to right variable
|
||||||
|
for x in range(team_diff_len - 1, 0, -1):
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[x].down()
|
||||||
|
delta = max(delta, trunc_layer[x].up())
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[x].up(0) # up to left variable
|
||||||
|
# repeat until to small update
|
||||||
|
if delta <= min_delta:
|
||||||
|
break
|
||||||
|
# up both ends
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[0].up(0)
|
||||||
|
team_diff_layer[team_diff_len - 1].up(1)
|
||||||
|
# up the remainder of the black arrows
|
||||||
|
for f in team_perf_layer:
|
||||||
|
for x in range(len(f.vars) - 1):
|
||||||
|
f.up(x)
|
||||||
|
for f in perf_layer:
|
||||||
|
f.up()
|
||||||
|
return layers
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def rate(self, rating_groups, ranks=None, weights=None, min_delta=DELTA):
|
||||||
|
"""Recalculates ratings by the ranking table::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
env = TrueSkill() # uses default settings
|
||||||
|
# create ratings
|
||||||
|
r1 = env.create_rating(42.222)
|
||||||
|
r2 = env.create_rating(89.999)
|
||||||
|
# calculate new ratings
|
||||||
|
rating_groups = [(r1,), (r2,)]
|
||||||
|
rated_rating_groups = env.rate(rating_groups, ranks=[0, 1])
|
||||||
|
# save new ratings
|
||||||
|
(r1,), (r2,) = rated_rating_groups
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
``rating_groups`` is a list of rating tuples or dictionaries that
|
||||||
|
represents each team of the match. You will get a result as same
|
||||||
|
structure as this argument. Rating dictionaries for this may be useful
|
||||||
|
to choose specific player's new rating::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# load players from the database
|
||||||
|
p1 = load_player_from_database('Arpad Emrick Elo')
|
||||||
|
p2 = load_player_from_database('Mark Glickman')
|
||||||
|
p3 = load_player_from_database('Heungsub Lee')
|
||||||
|
# calculate new ratings
|
||||||
|
rating_groups = [{p1: p1.rating, p2: p2.rating}, {p3: p3.rating}]
|
||||||
|
rated_rating_groups = env.rate(rating_groups, ranks=[0, 1])
|
||||||
|
# save new ratings
|
||||||
|
for player in [p1, p2, p3]:
|
||||||
|
player.rating = rated_rating_groups[player.team][player]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:param rating_groups: a list of tuples or dictionaries containing
|
||||||
|
:class:`Rating` objects.
|
||||||
|
:param ranks: a ranking table. By default, it is same as the order of
|
||||||
|
the ``rating_groups``.
|
||||||
|
:param weights: weights of each players for "partial play".
|
||||||
|
:param min_delta: each loop checks a delta of changes and the loop
|
||||||
|
will stop if the delta is less then this argument.
|
||||||
|
:returns: recalculated ratings same structure as ``rating_groups``.
|
||||||
|
:raises: :exc:`FloatingPointError` occurs when winners have too lower
|
||||||
|
rating than losers. higher floating-point precision couls
|
||||||
|
solve this error. set the backend to "mpmath".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
rating_groups, keys = self.validate_rating_groups(rating_groups)
|
||||||
|
weights = self.validate_weights(weights, rating_groups, keys)
|
||||||
|
group_size = len(rating_groups)
|
||||||
|
if ranks is None:
|
||||||
|
ranks = range(group_size)
|
||||||
|
elif len(ranks) != group_size:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('Wrong ranks')
|
||||||
|
# sort rating groups by rank
|
||||||
|
by_rank = lambda x: x[1][1]
|
||||||
|
sorting = sorted(enumerate(zip(rating_groups, ranks, weights)),
|
||||||
|
key=by_rank)
|
||||||
|
sorted_rating_groups, sorted_ranks, sorted_weights = [], [], []
|
||||||
|
for x, (g, r, w) in sorting:
|
||||||
|
sorted_rating_groups.append(g)
|
||||||
|
sorted_ranks.append(r)
|
||||||
|
# make weights to be greater than 0
|
||||||
|
sorted_weights.append(max(min_delta, w_) for w_ in w)
|
||||||
|
# build factor graph
|
||||||
|
args = (sorted_rating_groups, sorted_ranks, sorted_weights)
|
||||||
|
builders = self.factor_graph_builders(*args)
|
||||||
|
args = builders + (min_delta,)
|
||||||
|
layers = self.run_schedule(*args)
|
||||||
|
# make result
|
||||||
|
rating_layer, team_sizes = layers[0], _team_sizes(sorted_rating_groups)
|
||||||
|
transformed_groups = []
|
||||||
|
for start, end in zip([0] + team_sizes[:-1], team_sizes):
|
||||||
|
group = []
|
||||||
|
for f in rating_layer[start:end]:
|
||||||
|
group.append(Rating(float(f.var.mu), float(f.var.sigma)))
|
||||||
|
transformed_groups.append(tuple(group))
|
||||||
|
by_hint = lambda x: x[0]
|
||||||
|
unsorting = sorted(zip((x for x, __ in sorting), transformed_groups),
|
||||||
|
key=by_hint)
|
||||||
|
if keys is None:
|
||||||
|
return [g for x, g in unsorting]
|
||||||
|
# restore the structure with input dictionary keys
|
||||||
|
return [dict(zip(keys[x], g)) for x, g in unsorting]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def quality(self, rating_groups, weights=None):
|
||||||
|
"""Calculates the match quality of the given rating groups. A result
|
||||||
|
is the draw probability in the association::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
env = TrueSkill()
|
||||||
|
if env.quality([team1, team2, team3]) < 0.50:
|
||||||
|
print('This match seems to be not so fair')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:param rating_groups: a list of tuples or dictionaries containing
|
||||||
|
:class:`Rating` objects.
|
||||||
|
:param weights: weights of each players for "partial play".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
rating_groups, keys = self.validate_rating_groups(rating_groups)
|
||||||
|
weights = self.validate_weights(weights, rating_groups, keys)
|
||||||
|
flatten_ratings = sum(map(tuple, rating_groups), ())
|
||||||
|
flatten_weights = sum(map(tuple, weights), ())
|
||||||
|
length = len(flatten_ratings)
|
||||||
|
# a vector of all of the skill means
|
||||||
|
mean_matrix = Matrix([[r.mu] for r in flatten_ratings])
|
||||||
|
# a matrix whose diagonal values are the variances (sigma ** 2) of each
|
||||||
|
# of the players.
|
||||||
|
def variance_matrix(height, width):
|
||||||
|
variances = (r.sigma ** 2 for r in flatten_ratings)
|
||||||
|
for x, variance in enumerate(variances):
|
||||||
|
yield (x, x), variance
|
||||||
|
variance_matrix = Matrix(variance_matrix, length, length)
|
||||||
|
# the player-team assignment and comparison matrix
|
||||||
|
def rotated_a_matrix(set_height, set_width):
|
||||||
|
t = 0
|
||||||
|
for r, (cur, _next) in enumerate(zip(rating_groups[:-1],
|
||||||
|
rating_groups[1:])):
|
||||||
|
for x in range(t, t + len(cur)):
|
||||||
|
yield (r, x), flatten_weights[x]
|
||||||
|
t += 1
|
||||||
|
x += 1
|
||||||
|
for x in range(x, x + len(_next)):
|
||||||
|
yield (r, x), -flatten_weights[x]
|
||||||
|
set_height(r + 1)
|
||||||
|
set_width(x + 1)
|
||||||
|
rotated_a_matrix = Matrix(rotated_a_matrix)
|
||||||
|
a_matrix = rotated_a_matrix.transpose()
|
||||||
|
# match quality further derivation
|
||||||
|
_ata = (self.beta ** 2) * rotated_a_matrix * a_matrix
|
||||||
|
_atsa = rotated_a_matrix * variance_matrix * a_matrix
|
||||||
|
start = mean_matrix.transpose() * a_matrix
|
||||||
|
middle = _ata + _atsa
|
||||||
|
end = rotated_a_matrix * mean_matrix
|
||||||
|
# make result
|
||||||
|
e_arg = (-0.5 * start * middle.inverse() * end).determinant()
|
||||||
|
s_arg = _ata.determinant() / middle.determinant()
|
||||||
|
return math.exp(e_arg) * math.sqrt(s_arg)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def expose(self, rating):
|
||||||
|
"""Returns the value of the rating exposure. It starts from 0 and
|
||||||
|
converges to the mean. Use this as a sort key in a leaderboard::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
leaderboard = sorted(ratings, key=env.expose, reverse=True)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.4
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
k = self.mu / self.sigma
|
||||||
|
return rating.mu - k * rating.sigma
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def make_as_global(self):
|
||||||
|
"""Registers the environment as the global environment.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
>>> env = TrueSkill(mu=50)
|
||||||
|
>>> Rating()
|
||||||
|
trueskill.Rating(mu=25.000, sigma=8.333)
|
||||||
|
>>> env.make_as_global() #doctest: +ELLIPSIS
|
||||||
|
trueskill.TrueSkill(mu=50.000, ...)
|
||||||
|
>>> Rating()
|
||||||
|
trueskill.Rating(mu=50.000, sigma=8.333)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But if you need just one environment, :func:`setup` is better to use.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
return setup(env=self)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __repr__(self):
|
||||||
|
c = type(self)
|
||||||
|
if callable(self.draw_probability):
|
||||||
|
f = self.draw_probability
|
||||||
|
draw_probability = '.'.join([f.__module__, f.__name__])
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
draw_probability = '%.1f%%' % (self.draw_probability * 100)
|
||||||
|
if self.backend is None:
|
||||||
|
backend = ''
|
||||||
|
elif isinstance(self.backend, tuple):
|
||||||
|
backend = ', backend=...'
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
backend = ', backend=%r' % self.backend
|
||||||
|
args = ('.'.join([c.__module__, c.__name__]), self.mu, self.sigma,
|
||||||
|
self.beta, self.tau, draw_probability, backend)
|
||||||
|
return ('%s(mu=%.3f, sigma=%.3f, beta=%.3f, tau=%.3f, '
|
||||||
|
'draw_probability=%s%s)' % args)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def rate_1vs1(rating1, rating2, drawn=False, min_delta=DELTA, env=None):
|
||||||
|
"""A shortcut to rate just 2 players in a head-to-head match::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
alice, bob = Rating(25), Rating(30)
|
||||||
|
alice, bob = rate_1vs1(alice, bob)
|
||||||
|
alice, bob = rate_1vs1(alice, bob, drawn=True)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:param rating1: the winner's rating if they didn't draw.
|
||||||
|
:param rating2: the loser's rating if they didn't draw.
|
||||||
|
:param drawn: if the players drew, set this to ``True``. Defaults to
|
||||||
|
``False``.
|
||||||
|
:param min_delta: will be passed to :meth:`rate`.
|
||||||
|
:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
|
||||||
|
environment.
|
||||||
|
:returns: a tuple containing recalculated 2 ratings.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if env is None:
|
||||||
|
env = global_env()
|
||||||
|
ranks = [0, 0 if drawn else 1]
|
||||||
|
teams = env.rate([(rating1,), (rating2,)], ranks, min_delta=min_delta)
|
||||||
|
return teams[0][0], teams[1][0]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def quality_1vs1(rating1, rating2, env=None):
|
||||||
|
"""A shortcut to calculate the match quality between just 2 players in
|
||||||
|
a head-to-head match::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if quality_1vs1(alice, bob) < 0.50:
|
||||||
|
print('This match seems to be not so fair')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:param rating1: the rating.
|
||||||
|
:param rating2: the another rating.
|
||||||
|
:param env: the :class:`TrueSkill` object. Defaults to the global
|
||||||
|
environment.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if env is None:
|
||||||
|
env = global_env()
|
||||||
|
return env.quality([(rating1,), (rating2,)])
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def global_env():
|
||||||
|
"""Gets the :class:`TrueSkill` object which is the global environment."""
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
global_env.__trueskill__
|
||||||
|
except AttributeError:
|
||||||
|
# setup the default environment
|
||||||
|
setup()
|
||||||
|
return global_env.__trueskill__
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def setup(mu=MU, sigma=SIGMA, beta=BETA, tau=TAU,
|
||||||
|
draw_probability=DRAW_PROBABILITY, backend=None, env=None):
|
||||||
|
"""Setups the global environment.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:param env: the specific :class:`TrueSkill` object to be the global
|
||||||
|
environment. It is optional.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
>>> Rating()
|
||||||
|
trueskill.Rating(mu=25.000, sigma=8.333)
|
||||||
|
>>> setup(mu=50) #doctest: +ELLIPSIS
|
||||||
|
trueskill.TrueSkill(mu=50.000, ...)
|
||||||
|
>>> Rating()
|
||||||
|
trueskill.Rating(mu=50.000, sigma=8.333)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if env is None:
|
||||||
|
env = TrueSkill(mu, sigma, beta, tau, draw_probability, backend)
|
||||||
|
global_env.__trueskill__ = env
|
||||||
|
return env
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def rate(rating_groups, ranks=None, weights=None, min_delta=DELTA):
|
||||||
|
"""A proxy function for :meth:`TrueSkill.rate` of the global environment.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
return global_env().rate(rating_groups, ranks, weights, min_delta)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def quality(rating_groups, weights=None):
|
||||||
|
"""A proxy function for :meth:`TrueSkill.quality` of the global
|
||||||
|
environment.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
return global_env().quality(rating_groups, weights)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def expose(rating):
|
||||||
|
"""A proxy function for :meth:`TrueSkill.expose` of the global environment.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.4
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
return global_env().expose(rating)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Append deprecated methods into :class:`TrueSkill` and :class:`Rating`
|
||||||
|
from . import deprecated # noqa
|
||||||
|
from .deprecated import ( # noqa
|
||||||
|
dynamic_draw_probability, match_quality, transform_ratings)
|
||||||
|
deprecated.ensure_backward_compatibility(TrueSkill, Rating)
|
Binary file not shown.
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135
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/backends.py
Normal file
135
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/backends.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
|
|||||||
|
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
trueskill.backends
|
||||||
|
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Provides mathematical statistics backend chooser.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:copyright: (c) 2012-2016 by Heungsub Lee.
|
||||||
|
:license: BSD, see LICENSE for more details.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import absolute_import
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import math
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from six.moves import range
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
__all__ = ['available_backends', 'choose_backend', 'cdf', 'pdf', 'ppf']
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _gen_erfcinv(erfc, math=math):
|
||||||
|
"""Generates the inverse function of erfc by the given erfc function and
|
||||||
|
math module.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
def erfcinv(y):
|
||||||
|
"""The inverse function of erfc."""
|
||||||
|
if y >= 2:
|
||||||
|
return -100.
|
||||||
|
elif y <= 0:
|
||||||
|
return 100.
|
||||||
|
zero_point = y < 1
|
||||||
|
if not zero_point:
|
||||||
|
y = 2 - y
|
||||||
|
t = math.sqrt(-2 * math.log(y / 2.))
|
||||||
|
x = -0.70711 * \
|
||||||
|
((2.30753 + t * 0.27061) / (1. + t * (0.99229 + t * 0.04481)) - t)
|
||||||
|
for i in range(2):
|
||||||
|
err = erfc(x) - y
|
||||||
|
x += err / (1.12837916709551257 * math.exp(-(x ** 2)) - x * err)
|
||||||
|
return x if zero_point else -x
|
||||||
|
return erfcinv
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _gen_ppf(erfc, math=math):
|
||||||
|
"""ppf is the inverse function of cdf. This function generates cdf by the
|
||||||
|
given erfc and math module.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
erfcinv = _gen_erfcinv(erfc, math)
|
||||||
|
def ppf(x, mu=0, sigma=1):
|
||||||
|
"""The inverse function of cdf."""
|
||||||
|
return mu - sigma * math.sqrt(2) * erfcinv(2 * x)
|
||||||
|
return ppf
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def erfc(x):
|
||||||
|
"""Complementary error function (via `http://bit.ly/zOLqbc`_)"""
|
||||||
|
z = abs(x)
|
||||||
|
t = 1. / (1. + z / 2.)
|
||||||
|
r = t * math.exp(-z * z - 1.26551223 + t * (1.00002368 + t * (
|
||||||
|
0.37409196 + t * (0.09678418 + t * (-0.18628806 + t * (
|
||||||
|
0.27886807 + t * (-1.13520398 + t * (1.48851587 + t * (
|
||||||
|
-0.82215223 + t * 0.17087277
|
||||||
|
)))
|
||||||
|
)))
|
||||||
|
)))
|
||||||
|
return 2. - r if x < 0 else r
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def cdf(x, mu=0, sigma=1):
|
||||||
|
"""Cumulative distribution function"""
|
||||||
|
return 0.5 * erfc(-(x - mu) / (sigma * math.sqrt(2)))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def pdf(x, mu=0, sigma=1):
|
||||||
|
"""Probability density function"""
|
||||||
|
return (1 / math.sqrt(2 * math.pi) * abs(sigma) *
|
||||||
|
math.exp(-(((x - mu) / abs(sigma)) ** 2 / 2)))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ppf = _gen_ppf(erfc)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def choose_backend(backend):
|
||||||
|
"""Returns a tuple containing cdf, pdf, ppf from the chosen backend.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
>>> cdf, pdf, ppf = choose_backend(None)
|
||||||
|
>>> cdf(-10)
|
||||||
|
7.619853263532764e-24
|
||||||
|
>>> cdf, pdf, ppf = choose_backend('mpmath')
|
||||||
|
>>> cdf(-10)
|
||||||
|
mpf('7.6198530241605255e-24')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.3
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
if backend is None: # fallback
|
||||||
|
return cdf, pdf, ppf
|
||||||
|
elif backend == 'mpmath':
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
import mpmath
|
||||||
|
except ImportError:
|
||||||
|
raise ImportError('Install "mpmath" to use this backend')
|
||||||
|
return mpmath.ncdf, mpmath.npdf, _gen_ppf(mpmath.erfc, math=mpmath)
|
||||||
|
elif backend == 'scipy':
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
from scipy.stats import norm
|
||||||
|
except ImportError:
|
||||||
|
raise ImportError('Install "scipy" to use this backend')
|
||||||
|
return norm.cdf, norm.pdf, norm.ppf
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('%r backend is not defined' % backend)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def available_backends():
|
||||||
|
"""Detects list of available backends. All of defined backends are
|
||||||
|
``None`` -- internal implementation, "mpmath", "scipy".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can check if the backend is available in the current environment with
|
||||||
|
this function::
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if 'mpmath' in available_backends():
|
||||||
|
# mpmath can be used in the current environment
|
||||||
|
setup(backend='mpmath')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. versionadded:: 0.3
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
backends = [None]
|
||||||
|
for backend in ['mpmath', 'scipy']:
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
__import__(backend)
|
||||||
|
except ImportError:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
backends.append(backend)
|
||||||
|
return backends
|
134
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/deprecated.py
Normal file
134
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/deprecated.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
|
|||||||
|
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
trueskill.deprecated
|
||||||
|
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Deprecated features.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:copyright: (c) 2012-2016 by Heungsub Lee
|
||||||
|
:license: BSD, see LICENSE for more details.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import absolute_import
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import warnings
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from . import DELTA, expose, global_env, quality_1vs1, rate_1vs1, Rating
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
__all__ = ['transform_ratings', 'match_quality', 'dynamic_draw_probability',
|
||||||
|
'ensure_backward_compatibility']
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# deprecated functions
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def transform_ratings(rating_groups, ranks=None, min_delta=DELTA):
|
||||||
|
return global_env().transform_ratings(rating_groups, ranks, min_delta)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def match_quality(rating_groups):
|
||||||
|
return global_env().match_quality(rating_groups)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def dynamic_draw_probability(rating1, rating2, env=None):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. It was an approximation for :func:`quality_1vs1`.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.4.1
|
||||||
|
Use :func:`quality_1vs1` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use quality_1vs1() instead', DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
return quality_1vs1(rating1, rating2, env=env)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# deprecated methods
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def addattr(obj, attr, value):
|
||||||
|
if hasattr(obj, attr):
|
||||||
|
raise AttributeError('The attribute already exists')
|
||||||
|
return setattr(obj, attr, value)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def ensure_backward_compatibility(TrueSkill, Rating):
|
||||||
|
addattr(TrueSkill, 'Rating', TrueSkill_Rating)
|
||||||
|
addattr(TrueSkill, 'transform_ratings', TrueSkill_transform_ratings)
|
||||||
|
addattr(TrueSkill, 'match_quality', TrueSkill_match_quality)
|
||||||
|
addattr(TrueSkill, 'rate_1vs1', TrueSkill_rate_1vs1)
|
||||||
|
addattr(TrueSkill, 'quality_1vs1', TrueSkill_quality_1vs1)
|
||||||
|
addattr(Rating, 'exposure', Rating_exposure)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def TrueSkill_Rating(self, mu=None, sigma=None):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. Used to create a :class:`Rating` object.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
Override :meth:`create_rating` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use TrueSkill.create_rating() instead', DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
return self.create_rating(mu, sigma)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def TrueSkill_transform_ratings(self, rating_groups, ranks=None,
|
||||||
|
min_delta=DELTA):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. Used to rate the given ratings.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
Override :meth:`rate` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use TrueSkill.rate() instead', DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
rating_groups = [(r,) if isinstance(r, Rating) else r
|
||||||
|
for r in rating_groups]
|
||||||
|
return self.rate(rating_groups, ranks, min_delta=min_delta)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def TrueSkill_match_quality(self, rating_groups):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. Used to calculate a match quality.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.2
|
||||||
|
Override :meth:`quality` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use TrueSkill.quality() instead', DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
rating_groups = [(r,) if isinstance(r, Rating) else r
|
||||||
|
for r in rating_groups]
|
||||||
|
return self.quality(rating_groups)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def TrueSkill_rate_1vs1(self, rating1, rating2, drawn=False, min_delta=DELTA):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. Used to rate just a head-to-haed match.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.4
|
||||||
|
Use :func:`rate_1vs1` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use global function rate_1vs1() instead',
|
||||||
|
DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
return rate_1vs1(rating1, rating2, drawn, min_delta, self)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def TrueSkill_quality_1vs1(self, rating1, rating2):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. Used to calculate a match quality for a head-to-haed match.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.4
|
||||||
|
Use :func:`quality_1vs1` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use global function quality_1vs1() instead',
|
||||||
|
DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
return quality_1vs1(rating1, rating2, self)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
@property
|
||||||
|
def Rating_exposure(self):
|
||||||
|
"""Deprecated. Used to get a value that will go up on the whole.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.. deprecated:: 0.4
|
||||||
|
Use :meth:`TrueSkill.expose` instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
warnings.warn('Use TrueSkill.expose() instead', DeprecationWarning)
|
||||||
|
return expose(self)
|
199
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/factorgraph.py
Normal file
199
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/factorgraph.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,199 @@
|
|||||||
|
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
trueskill.factorgraph
|
||||||
|
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This module contains nodes for the factor graph of TrueSkill algorithm.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:copyright: (c) 2012-2016 by Heungsub Lee.
|
||||||
|
:license: BSD, see LICENSE for more details.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import absolute_import
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import math
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from six.moves import zip
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from .mathematics import Gaussian, inf
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
__all__ = ['Variable', 'PriorFactor', 'LikelihoodFactor', 'SumFactor',
|
||||||
|
'TruncateFactor']
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class Node(object):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
pass
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class Variable(Node, Gaussian):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self):
|
||||||
|
self.messages = {}
|
||||||
|
super(Variable, self).__init__()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def set(self, val):
|
||||||
|
delta = self.delta(val)
|
||||||
|
self.pi, self.tau = val.pi, val.tau
|
||||||
|
return delta
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def delta(self, other):
|
||||||
|
pi_delta = abs(self.pi - other.pi)
|
||||||
|
if pi_delta == inf:
|
||||||
|
return 0.
|
||||||
|
return max(abs(self.tau - other.tau), math.sqrt(pi_delta))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def update_message(self, factor, pi=0, tau=0, message=None):
|
||||||
|
message = message or Gaussian(pi=pi, tau=tau)
|
||||||
|
old_message, self[factor] = self[factor], message
|
||||||
|
return self.set(self / old_message * message)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def update_value(self, factor, pi=0, tau=0, value=None):
|
||||||
|
value = value or Gaussian(pi=pi, tau=tau)
|
||||||
|
old_message = self[factor]
|
||||||
|
self[factor] = value * old_message / self
|
||||||
|
return self.set(value)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __getitem__(self, factor):
|
||||||
|
return self.messages[factor]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __setitem__(self, factor, message):
|
||||||
|
self.messages[factor] = message
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __repr__(self):
|
||||||
|
args = (type(self).__name__, super(Variable, self).__repr__(),
|
||||||
|
len(self.messages), '' if len(self.messages) == 1 else 's')
|
||||||
|
return '<%s %s with %d connection%s>' % args
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class Factor(Node):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, variables):
|
||||||
|
self.vars = variables
|
||||||
|
for var in variables:
|
||||||
|
var[self] = Gaussian()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def down(self):
|
||||||
|
return 0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def up(self):
|
||||||
|
return 0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
@property
|
||||||
|
def var(self):
|
||||||
|
assert len(self.vars) == 1
|
||||||
|
return self.vars[0]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __repr__(self):
|
||||||
|
args = (type(self).__name__, len(self.vars),
|
||||||
|
'' if len(self.vars) == 1 else 's')
|
||||||
|
return '<%s with %d connection%s>' % args
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class PriorFactor(Factor):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, var, val, dynamic=0):
|
||||||
|
super(PriorFactor, self).__init__([var])
|
||||||
|
self.val = val
|
||||||
|
self.dynamic = dynamic
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def down(self):
|
||||||
|
sigma = math.sqrt(self.val.sigma ** 2 + self.dynamic ** 2)
|
||||||
|
value = Gaussian(self.val.mu, sigma)
|
||||||
|
return self.var.update_value(self, value=value)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class LikelihoodFactor(Factor):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, mean_var, value_var, variance):
|
||||||
|
super(LikelihoodFactor, self).__init__([mean_var, value_var])
|
||||||
|
self.mean = mean_var
|
||||||
|
self.value = value_var
|
||||||
|
self.variance = variance
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def calc_a(self, var):
|
||||||
|
return 1. / (1. + self.variance * var.pi)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def down(self):
|
||||||
|
# update value.
|
||||||
|
msg = self.mean / self.mean[self]
|
||||||
|
a = self.calc_a(msg)
|
||||||
|
return self.value.update_message(self, a * msg.pi, a * msg.tau)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def up(self):
|
||||||
|
# update mean.
|
||||||
|
msg = self.value / self.value[self]
|
||||||
|
a = self.calc_a(msg)
|
||||||
|
return self.mean.update_message(self, a * msg.pi, a * msg.tau)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class SumFactor(Factor):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, sum_var, term_vars, coeffs):
|
||||||
|
super(SumFactor, self).__init__([sum_var] + term_vars)
|
||||||
|
self.sum = sum_var
|
||||||
|
self.terms = term_vars
|
||||||
|
self.coeffs = coeffs
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def down(self):
|
||||||
|
vals = self.terms
|
||||||
|
msgs = [var[self] for var in vals]
|
||||||
|
return self.update(self.sum, vals, msgs, self.coeffs)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def up(self, index=0):
|
||||||
|
coeff = self.coeffs[index]
|
||||||
|
coeffs = []
|
||||||
|
for x, c in enumerate(self.coeffs):
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
if x == index:
|
||||||
|
coeffs.append(1. / coeff)
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
coeffs.append(-c / coeff)
|
||||||
|
except ZeroDivisionError:
|
||||||
|
coeffs.append(0.)
|
||||||
|
vals = self.terms[:]
|
||||||
|
vals[index] = self.sum
|
||||||
|
msgs = [var[self] for var in vals]
|
||||||
|
return self.update(self.terms[index], vals, msgs, coeffs)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def update(self, var, vals, msgs, coeffs):
|
||||||
|
pi_inv = 0
|
||||||
|
mu = 0
|
||||||
|
for val, msg, coeff in zip(vals, msgs, coeffs):
|
||||||
|
div = val / msg
|
||||||
|
mu += coeff * div.mu
|
||||||
|
if pi_inv == inf:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
# numpy.float64 handles floating-point error by different way.
|
||||||
|
# For example, it can just warn RuntimeWarning on n/0 problem
|
||||||
|
# instead of throwing ZeroDivisionError. So div.pi, the
|
||||||
|
# denominator has to be a built-in float.
|
||||||
|
pi_inv += coeff ** 2 / float(div.pi)
|
||||||
|
except ZeroDivisionError:
|
||||||
|
pi_inv = inf
|
||||||
|
pi = 1. / pi_inv
|
||||||
|
tau = pi * mu
|
||||||
|
return var.update_message(self, pi, tau)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class TruncateFactor(Factor):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, var, v_func, w_func, draw_margin):
|
||||||
|
super(TruncateFactor, self).__init__([var])
|
||||||
|
self.v_func = v_func
|
||||||
|
self.w_func = w_func
|
||||||
|
self.draw_margin = draw_margin
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def up(self):
|
||||||
|
val = self.var
|
||||||
|
msg = self.var[self]
|
||||||
|
div = val / msg
|
||||||
|
sqrt_pi = math.sqrt(div.pi)
|
||||||
|
args = (div.tau / sqrt_pi, self.draw_margin * sqrt_pi)
|
||||||
|
v = self.v_func(*args)
|
||||||
|
w = self.w_func(*args)
|
||||||
|
denom = (1. - w)
|
||||||
|
pi, tau = div.pi / denom, (div.tau + sqrt_pi * v) / denom
|
||||||
|
return val.update_value(self, pi, tau)
|
260
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/mathematics.py
Normal file
260
data analysis/analysis/trueskill/mathematics.py
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,260 @@
|
|||||||
|
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
trueskill.mathematics
|
||||||
|
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This module contains basic mathematics functions and objects for TrueSkill
|
||||||
|
algorithm. If you have not scipy, this module provides the fallback.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
:copyright: (c) 2012-2016 by Heungsub Lee.
|
||||||
|
:license: BSD, see LICENSE for more details.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import absolute_import
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import copy
|
||||||
|
import math
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
from numbers import Number
|
||||||
|
except ImportError:
|
||||||
|
Number = (int, long, float, complex)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from six import iterkeys
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
__all__ = ['Gaussian', 'Matrix', 'inf']
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
inf = float('inf')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class Gaussian(object):
|
||||||
|
"""A model for the normal distribution."""
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
#: Precision, the inverse of the variance.
|
||||||
|
pi = 0
|
||||||
|
#: Precision adjusted mean, the precision multiplied by the mean.
|
||||||
|
tau = 0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, mu=None, sigma=None, pi=0, tau=0):
|
||||||
|
if mu is not None:
|
||||||
|
if sigma is None:
|
||||||
|
raise TypeError('sigma argument is needed')
|
||||||
|
elif sigma == 0:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('sigma**2 should be greater than 0')
|
||||||
|
pi = sigma ** -2
|
||||||
|
tau = pi * mu
|
||||||
|
self.pi = pi
|
||||||
|
self.tau = tau
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
@property
|
||||||
|
def mu(self):
|
||||||
|
"""A property which returns the mean."""
|
||||||
|
return self.pi and self.tau / self.pi
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
@property
|
||||||
|
def sigma(self):
|
||||||
|
"""A property which returns the the square root of the variance."""
|
||||||
|
return math.sqrt(1 / self.pi) if self.pi else inf
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __mul__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
pi, tau = self.pi + other.pi, self.tau + other.tau
|
||||||
|
return Gaussian(pi=pi, tau=tau)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __truediv__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
pi, tau = self.pi - other.pi, self.tau - other.tau
|
||||||
|
return Gaussian(pi=pi, tau=tau)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
__div__ = __truediv__ # for Python 2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __eq__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
return self.pi == other.pi and self.tau == other.tau
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __lt__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
return self.mu < other.mu
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __le__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
return self.mu <= other.mu
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __gt__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
return self.mu > other.mu
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __ge__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
return self.mu >= other.mu
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __repr__(self):
|
||||||
|
return 'N(mu={:.3f}, sigma={:.3f})'.format(self.mu, self.sigma)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _repr_latex_(self):
|
||||||
|
latex = r'\mathcal{{ N }}( {:.3f}, {:.3f}^2 )'.format(self.mu, self.sigma)
|
||||||
|
return '$%s$' % latex
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
class Matrix(list):
|
||||||
|
"""A model for matrix."""
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __init__(self, src, height=None, width=None):
|
||||||
|
if callable(src):
|
||||||
|
f, src = src, {}
|
||||||
|
size = [height, width]
|
||||||
|
if not height:
|
||||||
|
def set_height(height):
|
||||||
|
size[0] = height
|
||||||
|
size[0] = set_height
|
||||||
|
if not width:
|
||||||
|
def set_width(width):
|
||||||
|
size[1] = width
|
||||||
|
size[1] = set_width
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
for (r, c), val in f(*size):
|
||||||
|
src[r, c] = val
|
||||||
|
except TypeError:
|
||||||
|
raise TypeError('A callable src must return an interable '
|
||||||
|
'which generates a tuple containing '
|
||||||
|
'coordinate and value')
|
||||||
|
height, width = tuple(size)
|
||||||
|
if height is None or width is None:
|
||||||
|
raise TypeError('A callable src must call set_height and '
|
||||||
|
'set_width if the size is non-deterministic')
|
||||||
|
if isinstance(src, list):
|
||||||
|
is_number = lambda x: isinstance(x, Number)
|
||||||
|
unique_col_sizes = set(map(len, src))
|
||||||
|
everything_are_number = filter(is_number, sum(src, []))
|
||||||
|
if len(unique_col_sizes) != 1 or not everything_are_number:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('src must be a rectangular array of numbers')
|
||||||
|
two_dimensional_array = src
|
||||||
|
elif isinstance(src, dict):
|
||||||
|
if not height or not width:
|
||||||
|
w = h = 0
|
||||||
|
for r, c in iterkeys(src):
|
||||||
|
if not height:
|
||||||
|
h = max(h, r + 1)
|
||||||
|
if not width:
|
||||||
|
w = max(w, c + 1)
|
||||||
|
if not height:
|
||||||
|
height = h
|
||||||
|
if not width:
|
||||||
|
width = w
|
||||||
|
two_dimensional_array = []
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
row = []
|
||||||
|
two_dimensional_array.append(row)
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
row.append(src.get((r, c), 0))
|
||||||
|
else:
|
||||||
|
raise TypeError('src must be a list or dict or callable')
|
||||||
|
super(Matrix, self).__init__(two_dimensional_array)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
@property
|
||||||
|
def height(self):
|
||||||
|
return len(self)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
@property
|
||||||
|
def width(self):
|
||||||
|
return len(self[0])
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def transpose(self):
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, self.width
|
||||||
|
src = {}
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
src[c, r] = self[r][c]
|
||||||
|
return type(self)(src, height=width, width=height)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def minor(self, row_n, col_n):
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, self.width
|
||||||
|
if not (0 <= row_n < height):
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('row_n should be between 0 and %d' % height)
|
||||||
|
elif not (0 <= col_n < width):
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('col_n should be between 0 and %d' % width)
|
||||||
|
two_dimensional_array = []
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
if r == row_n:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
row = []
|
||||||
|
two_dimensional_array.append(row)
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
if c == col_n:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
row.append(self[r][c])
|
||||||
|
return type(self)(two_dimensional_array)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def determinant(self):
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, self.width
|
||||||
|
if height != width:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('Only square matrix can calculate a determinant')
|
||||||
|
tmp, rv = copy.deepcopy(self), 1.
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width - 1, 0, -1):
|
||||||
|
pivot, r = max((abs(tmp[r][c]), r) for r in range(c + 1))
|
||||||
|
pivot = tmp[r][c]
|
||||||
|
if not pivot:
|
||||||
|
return 0.
|
||||||
|
tmp[r], tmp[c] = tmp[c], tmp[r]
|
||||||
|
if r != c:
|
||||||
|
rv = -rv
|
||||||
|
rv *= pivot
|
||||||
|
fact = -1. / pivot
|
||||||
|
for r in range(c):
|
||||||
|
f = fact * tmp[r][c]
|
||||||
|
for x in range(c):
|
||||||
|
tmp[r][x] += f * tmp[c][x]
|
||||||
|
return rv * tmp[0][0]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def adjugate(self):
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, self.width
|
||||||
|
if height != width:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('Only square matrix can be adjugated')
|
||||||
|
if height == 2:
|
||||||
|
a, b = self[0][0], self[0][1]
|
||||||
|
c, d = self[1][0], self[1][1]
|
||||||
|
return type(self)([[d, -b], [-c, a]])
|
||||||
|
src = {}
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
sign = -1 if (r + c) % 2 else 1
|
||||||
|
src[r, c] = self.minor(r, c).determinant() * sign
|
||||||
|
return type(self)(src, height, width)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def inverse(self):
|
||||||
|
if self.height == self.width == 1:
|
||||||
|
return type(self)([[1. / self[0][0]]])
|
||||||
|
return (1. / self.determinant()) * self.adjugate()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __add__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, self.width
|
||||||
|
if (height, width) != (other.height, other.width):
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('Must be same size')
|
||||||
|
src = {}
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
src[r, c] = self[r][c] + other[r][c]
|
||||||
|
return type(self)(src, height, width)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __mul__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
if self.width != other.height:
|
||||||
|
raise ValueError('Bad size')
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, other.width
|
||||||
|
src = {}
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
src[r, c] = sum(self[r][x] * other[x][c]
|
||||||
|
for x in range(self.width))
|
||||||
|
return type(self)(src, height, width)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __rmul__(self, other):
|
||||||
|
if not isinstance(other, Number):
|
||||||
|
raise TypeError('The operand should be a number')
|
||||||
|
height, width = self.height, self.width
|
||||||
|
src = {}
|
||||||
|
for r in range(height):
|
||||||
|
for c in range(width):
|
||||||
|
src[r, c] = other * self[r][c]
|
||||||
|
return type(self)(src, height, width)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def __repr__(self):
|
||||||
|
return '{}({})'.format(type(self).__name__, super(Matrix, self).__repr__())
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _repr_latex_(self):
|
||||||
|
rows = [' && '.join(['%.3f' % cell for cell in row]) for row in self]
|
||||||
|
latex = r'\begin{matrix} %s \end{matrix}' % r'\\'.join(rows)
|
||||||
|
return '$%s$' % latex
|
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user